Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
