Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
